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NASA Challenge: Data-Driven Forecasting of Solar Events

STATUS: Awarded
POSTED: Dec 22 2009
SOURCE: InnoCentive

Forecasting solar activity is important for future manned and unmanned exploration of the solar system. The Seeker wishes to develop the ability to forecast the occurrence of a Solar Particle Event (SPE) within a select window in time. Methods must make use of current real-time space weather measurements and/or archived space weather data.

Challenge ID: 9059496
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Challenge Overview
Future exploration of the solar system will pose a significant radiation exposure risk to both humans and hardware. Energetic particles emitted by the sun during Solar Particle Events (SPEs) increase exposure above background levels and could be mission limiting. There is no method available to predict the onset, intensity or duration of an SPE. Of particular interest for mission operations is the ability to predict, or forecast periods from 4 to 24 hours of low probability of having an SPE, i.e an 'All-Clear' forecast. Multiple observational platforms currently exist to monitor solar activity. Any method to forecast utilizing real-time and\or historical observations is of interest.
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